Emigration from Hungary, i.e. how many of us are there in reality?

At the end of April 2010 the estimated population of Hungary was 10 million 7 thousand. This estimated population number was calculated based on data of the population census held in 2001, taking into account the number of births and deaths and of immigrants and emigrants. According to the results of the population census of 2001 the resident population of Hungary was 10 million 198 thousand. From January 2001 to April 2010 the population of the country decreased by 191 thousand people. "Natural decrease", i.e. the difference between the number of births and deaths was 333 thousand. As a result of the (partly estimated) positive balance of international migration (an annual migration gain of about 15-16 thousand people) the population of Hungary declined to a lower extent than that. According to the estimations, however, it will even so fall below the limit of 10 million shortly, even during this year.

At the same time, it is to note that contrary to the number of births and deaths, data on international migration are uncertain. On the number of immigrants (foreign citizens applying for residence or work permit) accurate information is available practically in all the countries of Europe, while emigrants do not report whether they leave the area of the particular country temporarily or even definitely. Thus the net immigration registered in Hungary might be considerably lower in reality or not even exist. The real size of emigration can be estimated only based on the ’’mirror’’ statistics of typical receiving countries (i.e. on the basis of the number of registered Hungarian citizens settling there permanently). The figure below reveals that the balance of international migration is far from being as favourable as shown by official Hungarian statistics on migration. In the past circa 15 years a few hundreds of emigrants were registered in Hungary year by year, while some 15-30 thousand Hungarian emigrants were registered annually in the ’’mirror’’ statistics of the countries of Europe. This way, however, it is almost sure that the population number of the country has already been less than 10 million today, on which the 2011 population census can provide accurate information.

Gödri Irén: Nemzetközi vándorlás.(International migration). In Monostori J. - Őri P. - S. Molnár E. - Spéder Zs. (eds): Demográfiai portré 2009. HCSO’’s Demographic Research Institute, Budapest, 2009. 124. o.
www.demografia.hu/letoltes/kiadvanyok/portre/honlap_teljes.pdf and
Gödri Irén: A vándorlási veszteség Magyarországon az elmúlt évtizedben - avagy hányan is vagyunk valójában (Migration loss in Hungary in the past decade - i.e. how many of us are there in reality?). KorFa On-line 2010/3.
www.demografia.hu/letoltes/kiadvanyok/Korfak/KorFa online_2010_3.pdf
Further details on the subject are available in Hungarian at the above two websites or at the homepage of HCSO’’s Demographic Research Institutewww.demografia.hu.