Press release, 28.01.2025.
The impact of changes in the terms of trade on the economy – A new experimental statistic published by the HCSO
The new experimental statistics of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO) presents the timely changes in the whole Hungarian external trade in goods as well as services terms of trade, quantifies the absolute value of changes in the terms of trade impact, focuses on the correlations between relevant external factors (oil prices, external inflation and demand) from the terms of trade and economic point of view, especially on the impact of energy price changes.
The newest experimental statistics of the HCSO presents the changes in terms of trade, meaning the interrelation between export and import price changes as well as their possible causes and effects. The publication is based on yearly data, the Office is also considering quarterly data analyses and their regular publication in the future.
One of the novelties of the experimental statistics is the terms of trade impact analysis from the total external trade point of view, beside the external trade in goods, by using the terms of trade index. It is revealed, for example, that the total external trade index is below the product range one when terms of trade basically improve. The 2013–2016 and 2019–2020 periods and 2023 are such examples.
The other novelty of the analysis is the terms of trade impact adjusted index value being quantified, showing that even if the GDP index volume lessened by 0.9% in 2023, however considering the terms of trade index impact, a growth of 4.7% has been observed in terms of real income. In contrast, part of the significant GDP volume growth of 2021, the total of the 2022 one was annulled by the terms of trade deterioration.
As for the third novelty, the publication analyses about two decades (2001-2023) of energy price change impacts on the terms of trade changes, and models by mathematical statistical methods how energy carriers’ price changes explain the volume impact of terms of trade modifications. It is shown the higher the energy carriers’ price index the more significant the terms of trade deterioration is – from this perspective the extremity of the last 4 years stands out.
The Office presents on its experimental statistics posting, continuously updated sub-page data that may be considered as experimental, prepared by using new, alternative data sources as well as innovative methods and techniques for a more efficient and faster response to user demands.
Hungarian Central Statistical Office
H-1024 Budapest, Keleti Károly u. 5-7. Tel./Phone: (+36-1) 345-6000
Postacím/Postal address: P.O.Box 51 Budapest H-1525
http://www.ksh.hu