In Q1-3 2023, 31% fewer homes were sold than in the same period of the previous year. In each quarter, sales were down compared to a year earlier, but the rate of decline has slowed. After an initial price increase, both the second-hand and new housing markets showed a slight decline in the third quarter (-0.6% and -1.8% respectively) compared to the previous quarter. The deterioration in the market position of detached houses continued, with their average price per square metre down by 8.1% nationally.

Housing market turnover continued to decline

After a 14% drop in housing market sales in 2022, overall housing sales fell by a further 31% in Q1-3 2023 compared to a year earlier. In Q1, Q2 and Q3, 40%, 28% and 17% fewer dwellings changed hands than in the same period of the previous year.

In Q1-3 2023, there were 34% fewer sales than in the same period in 2021, before the start of the downturn.

During 2023, the decline in the market for new dwellings already exceeded that for second-hand dwellings. In Q1-3, new housing sales were 45% below the same quarter of the previous year.

The downturn in the housing market has therefore continued, but the pace of decline has slowed quarter by quarter during 2023. This was partly due to the fact that, in addition to lower turnover, the processing of cases - especially in the capital - was speeded up.

In 2022, 7.4% of dwellings sold were new builds, while in Q1-3 2023 the share is lower, at 3.5% in the data received so far.

Slight price decrease in Q3

In the second-hand housing market, the price increase of 3.5% in Q1-2023 was followed by stagnation in Q2-2023 and then a slight decrease (0.6%). For new dwellings, after an increase in Q1-Q2, data received so far show a 1.8% decrease in Q3.

In Q3 2023, second-hand dwellings sold at 2.6 times and new dwellings at 3 times the 2015 base price. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the price of second-hand dwellings was essentially unchanged (+0.2%), while the price of new dwellings rose by 11% in Q3 2023.

The evolution of the consolidated house price index is mainly determined by the change in the price of second-hand dwellings, due to their predominance in the market. In Q3, the base index was 267%, down 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and up only 1.5% year-on-year, the smallest annual price change in the last ten years.

After a small decline of 0.7% in the previous period, the real house price index fell again (-1.6%), but this decline in real terms is already below the decline observed in Q3-4 2022, reflecting the impact of shrinking inflation.

The biggest drop in turnover was in the county seats

Housing market turnover has already fallen in 2022 in all categories of settlements. The number of sales in Budapest fell by 9.4%, and the turnover in the villages decreased by a similar amount (9.1%). In the county seats and smaller towns, a sharper decline was observed (21% and 18% respectively). Similar disparities characterise the housing market in 2023. In quarters 1-3 of 2023, the housing market in the county seats continued to fall most, with the smaller municipalities showing a slightly milder than average decline. In the first quarter of 2023, the housing market in the county seats shrank to half of what it was two years earlier. After a significant fall in Q1, the decline slowed down in Q2 and Q3 in all categories of municipalities.

During 2023, the decline registered in the capital was more moderate than in the county seats, while the last period observed, the third quarter of 2023, indicates an increase based on the data available so far, which is significant even if the data at the same processing rate show a somewhat more favourable picture than realistic due to the acceleration of the lead time. (In 2022, the average annual percentage of cases that are processed within 4 months of the quarter in question has increased from 49% to 52%. The indicator improved in all categories of municipalities, but most notably in Budapest, where it increased from 39% to 46%.)

In the Budapest agglomeration, after a 30% drop in 2022, data for Q1-Q3 2023 show a recovery, although still below the same period in 2021 (by 18%), while already exceeding the figures for a year earlier (there is no sign of an acceleration in the throughput of cases here. The share of transactions arriving within 4 months remains extremely low and has deteriorated further in 2022, from 6.3% in the previous year to 4.2% on an annual average.)

New housing market in Q1-3 2023

• Of the approximately 6,500 homes built for sale, data for 2,100 have been received so far. Their average price is 57.3 million HUF, compared to 55.7 million HUF in the same period of 2022. The price per square metre of new homes nationwide was 976 thousand forints.

• In Budapest, a new dwelling cost HUF 70 million in Q1-3 2023, HUF 7.2 million more than a year earlier. In districts III, XI, XIII and XIV, where new housing was sold in large quantities, the average price per square metre was between HUF 1.2 and 1.4 million, while in district XVIII the average price was HUF 900 thousand.

• Outside the capital, only a few large settlements sold a significant number of new dwellings. Their average price per square metre reached the level of the capital in Siófok (HUF 1.3 million), while in Győr it was close to HUF 800 thousand, in Kecskemét HUF 700 thousand and in Nyíregyháza HUF 600 thousand.

Second-hand housing market in Q3 2023

• The average price of a dwelling was HUF 26.5 million. The average price per square metre was 432 thousand forints, the same as in Q1 and slightly higher than in Q2.

• In Budapest, a dwelling cost an average of HUF 46.8 million, 4 million less than a quarter earlier. Dwellings cost 876 thousand forints per square metre, a slight decrease compared to earlier in the year. In the capital city, we measured a decrease for all building types, with the square metre of detached houses falling by 5.1% to HUF 686 thousand. Condominium apartments cost 1.4% less than in the previous quarter, and panel flats 0.5% less. The price per square metre of a panel apartment was 735 thousand forints, and that of a non-panel apartment in a condominium 929 thousand forints.

• In the Balaton agglomeration, the peak price of HUF 727 thousand per square metre in Q2 fell to HUF 682 thousand. The overall home price fell from HUF 57.7 million in the previous quarter to an average of HUF 56.4 million.

• The market position of detached houses continued to deteriorate: with the exception of Western Transdanubia, their price per square metre decreased in all regions of the country (by a national average of 8.1%) compared to the previous quarter, with the decline in the Pest region being even higher than average (10%).

• The average price per square metre of non-prefabricated condominiums was 728 thousand HUF, barely shifting from the previous quarter. These flats became slightly more expensive in the Central Transdanubian and the two lowland regions, and cheaper in the rest of the country.

• Prices of rural prefabricated apartments have generally risen slightly, but in Northern Hungary they have fallen noticeably (-3.4%). Their national average price was 552 thousand HUF per square metre, 1.3% more than in the previous quarter.

Housing prices rose again on average in the EU Member States

In Q3 2023, the aggregate EU-27 housing price index was 148% of the 2015 base, while the euro area housing price index was 143%. After a temporary decline, housing prices rose by 0.7% on average in the EU and by 0.3% in the euro area.

Q3 2023

• Price developments in individual Member States showed a rather different picture. On a quarterly comparison, housing prices fell most in Luxembourg (-6.3%) and Finland (-2.7%), both with significant annual price decreases (-14 and -7.0% respectively).

• In Germany, housing prices fell for the fifth quarter in a row, with annual price declines of more than 10%.

• Compared with the previous quarter, Poland's housing market recorded the highest price increase (4.5%). Apart from stagnation in Q1 2023, house prices have been rising steadily in recent years, bringing the annual increase to 9.3%.

• Large annual price increases were also recorded in Croatia (11%), Bulgaria (9.2%), Lithuania (8.7%) and Portugal (7.6%).

• Among neighbouring countries, house prices in Austria were 2.2% lower than a year earlier. Romanian house prices rose by 4.8% and there was also an increase in Slovenia (5.7%), while in Slovakia house prices fell by 3.8% compared to the same period last year.

Further data and information

Methodological notes

Annual national data:
18.1.1.1. Summary data of housing
18.1.1.13. Housing price indices
18.1.1.14. Mean price per dwelling and sqm by region and building type
18.1.1.15. Number of housing transactions made by private persons

Annual regional data:
18.1.2.8. Mean price per dwelling by region and settlement type
18.1.2.9. Mean price per sqm by region and settlement type
18.1.2.10. Number of housing transactions made by private persons by region and settlement type
18.1.2.11. Mean price per dwelling by region and building type
18.1.2.12. Mean price per sqm by region and building type

Infra-annual national data:
18.2.1.1. Summary data of housing (quarterly data)
18.2.1.8. Housing price indices by quarter years
18.2.1.9. Number of housing transactions made by private persons by quarter years

Infra-annual regional data:
18.2.2.13. Mean price per dwelling by region and settlement type (quarterly data)
18.2.2.14. Mean price per sqm by region and settlement type (quarterly data)
18.2.2.15. Number of housing transactions made by private persons by region and settlement type (quarterly data)
18.2.2.16. Mean price per dwelling by region and building type (quarterly data)
18.2.2.17. Mean price per sqm by region and building type (quarterly data)

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