Housing prices, housing price index, Q4 2023

Methodological notes

The cumulative values of the published housing market indices are also included in the housing price indices of Eurostat. Methodology – Housing price statistics – Eurostat. Due to the harmonised methodology, these data are fully comparable across the European countries as well as with the aggregated indices of the EU member states.

The source of price observations is the stamp duty database of the National Tax and Customs Administration of Hungary (NAV), from where the anonymized stamp duty data are taken over on a monthly basis directly after their receipt. All home sales concluded by private individuals are subject to this data transfer including home sale prices and the most important characteristics. Through the development, information on housing market transactions was supplemented with information available in the statistical registers of HCSO and relevant for the housing market processes. This gives us more accurate information on the type of dwellings sold on the market and their immediate environment. At present, there are data series of uniform structure comparable in every respect from 2007, which make it possible to analyse changes in home prices in a more detailed and exact way. From 2016 onwards, data received include the nationality and birth year of the given home buyer. The gradually completed data base still allows only preliminary information on the processes of 2023. Our compilation’s data for the period prior to 2023 are final.

As a result of missing data, 1 per cent of all cases were excluded from calculations. In those cases, where there were no data on the floor area of the given dwelling, but all other data were available, the floor area was estimated using the home price and its other characteristics, then we used this estimated value to further calculate. Following this, a log linear regression model was used to analyse the data. Major data used in this model: floor area of the given dwelling, character of the building, specific geographical, administrative and income indicators of the given settlement (or district in Budapest) and the characteristics of the immediate neighbourhood zone and the residential building. In order to separate out new dwellings, we used the data collection of the HCSO on permits for occupancy issued (OSAP 1078), the new dwelling monitoring survey of Lokáció Kft. and NAV data on the use of subsidies related to the purchase of new dwellings.

Based on the findings of the first model estimation a further 5 per cent of dwellings were filtered out as outliers from further index calculations. After the exclusion of outliers, based on repeated model estimations, changes in prices were broken down by the composition effect and pure changes in prices. As a result of the log linear method the released price indices resulted from the geometrical average of the given prices in all cases. However, the average prices of this publication are always arithmetical averages, which were calculated after the completion of the outlier filtering.

The Eurostat’s aggregated housing price index is the weighted average of the price indices of second hand homes and new homes presented in our publication. The weights are the aggregate values of home sales realized in the previous year. The most recent Hungarian data published by Eurostat are always preliminary results based on the data recorded by the end of the second month following the reference period, while to this present publication we have used data received for the complete quarter following the reference period.