Comparison of changes in volume of GDP in EU member states, Q4 2024, year 2024

Released: 11 March 2025

The economic performance of the European Union increased by 1.4% – according to seasonally and calendar adjusted data – in the 4th quarter of 2024 compared to the same period of the previous year. Eurostat published the data for 26 member states on 7 March 2025 (no datum was available for Luxembourg), out of which the volume of GDP grew in 23 and lessened in three countries. The largest growth of 9.2% occurred in Ireland and there were decreases (of 0.2–1.2%) in Germany, Latvia and Austria. Hungary – as opposed to the other Visegrád countries – belonged to the member states in which the volume of GDP rose at a lower rate than the EU average. The performance of Hungary’s economy was 0.1% higher according to the seasonally and calendar adjusted datum and 0.4% higher according to the raw (unadjusted) datum than in the corresponding period of the previous year. The increase was due to the service sector, while the performance of good-producing sections, i.e. industry, construction and agriculture, went down. Among services, the largest contributors to GDP growth were wholesale and retail trade as well as professional, scientific, technical and administrative activities. From the expenditure approach, the pick-up of consumption increased the volume of GDP, at the same time gross capital formation – depending on investment activity, too – lowered it. The balance of external trade also restrained the economic increase, the volume of exports diminishing to a higher extent than that of imports, in which the fall in goods-producing sections had a substantial part.

Compared to the previous quarter, the volume of the EU’s GDP was up by 0.4% and that of Hungary’s at a higher pace, by 0.5%, with this, the technical recession ending in Hungary. In this respect, we were in the middle of the EU rankings, just like Czechia and Slovakia, while the fourth Visegrád country, Poland was in the first third of member state rankings.

In 2024 as a whole, the EU’s economic performance was 1.0% and Hungary’s 0.5% higher than in the previous year. On 7 March 2025, the annual data were available for 22 member states, of which Hungary’s result was in the second half of the rankings. In 2024, the highest growth (of 6.0%) was reached by Malta, and among larger economies by Spain and Poland (3.2% and 2.9%, respectively), while the volume of GDP decreased (by 0.2–1.2%) in Germany, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Austria.

According to the European Commission’s latest forecast – published on 15 November 2024 – the EU’s economic increase may accelerate to 1.5% in 2025. Within this, the Commission counted on a 1.8% growth for Hungary’s economy. Compared with this, the domestic economic policy forecast a higher growth: the National Bank of Hungary expected a 2.6–3.6% GDP growth for 2025 in its Inflation Report for December 2024, and the Government counted on a 3.4% increase on planning the budget for year 2025. According to a statement (of 30 January 2025) of the Ministry for National Economy, the economic growth is expected to accelerate quarter by quarter in 2025, which growth may be above 3% in the second half of the year.