Economic performance grows by 1.4% compared to previous quarter and decreases by 3.6% compared to a year earlier
The volume of gross domestic product decreased by 3.6% in Hungary in the 4th quarter of 2020 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. According to seasonally and calendar adjusted and reconciled data the performance of the economy became 1.4% higher than in the previous quarter and 4.1% lower than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. In 2020, the volume of GDP was 5.0% lower than in the previous year.
In the 4th quarter of 2020 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year:
The volume of GDP fell by 3.6%. Compared with the 4th-quarter figure issued in the flash estimate, the raw volume index in the second estimate indicates a 0.1 percentage point lower decrease1.
Production approach:
The performance of industry increased by 2.2%, within which that of manufacturing by 2.4% compared to the same period of the previous year. Among manufacturing branches, the largest contributor to the growth of industry was the increase in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers and of electrical equipment. The value added of construction lessened by 3.9% and that of agriculture by 5.6% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.
Table 1: Volume indices of production of gross domestic product (GDP)
(corresponding period of previous year = 100.0%)
| NACE | Industry | 2019 | 2020 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| quarter(s) | ||||||||
| IV | I–IV | I | II | III | IV | I–IV | ||
| A | Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 101.3 | 100.4 | 93.5 | 93.2 | 92.3 | 94.4 | 93.3 |
| B–E | Manufacturing, mining and quarrying and other industry | 101.9 | 103.9 | 101.8 | 80.0 | 97.6 | 102.2 | 95.2 |
| C | Of which: manufacturing | 100.5 | 102.6 | 101.3 | 78.4 | 98.1 | 102.4 | 94.8 |
| F | Construction | 103.4 | 113.0 | 101.5 | 87.1 | 82.1 | 96.1 | 90.6 |
| G–T | Services, total, of which: | 105.2 | 104.7 | 102.8 | 88.6 | 95.8 | 94.3 | 95.2 |
| G | Wholesale and retail trade | 112.2 | 110.8 | 109.4 | 95.6 | 102.2 | 100.1 | 101.4 |
| H | Transportation and storage | 105.9 | 105.2 | 98.8 | 76.9 | 80.4 | 80.0 | 83.4 |
| I | Accommodation and food service activities | 109.7 | 106.5 | 100.8 | 46.6 | 79.1 | 48.9 | 67.8 |
| J | Information and communication | 108.9 | 108.8 | 114.1 | 99.0 | 105.5 | 106.3 | 106.2 |
| K | Financial and insurance activities | 108.7 | 108.1 | 104.4 | 103.5 | 102.9 | 103.3 | 103.5 |
| L | Real estate activities | 99.1 | 98.9 | 99.8 | 92.2 | 95.3 | 91.4 | 94.6 |
| M–N | Professional, scientific, technical and administrative activities | 105.8 | 106.5 | 102.7 | 84.9 | 90.5 | 93.7 | 92.7 |
| O | Public administration and defence | 99.1 | 99.2 | 97.7 | 97.7 | 99.4 | 99.9 | 98.7 |
| P | Education | 102.5 | 101.3 | 101.1 | 93.5 | 97.5 | 101.9 | 98.5 |
| Q | Health and social work activities | 102.7 | 101.4 | 99.1 | 68.2 | 100.1 | 92.1 | 89.8 |
| R–T | Arts, entertainment and other services | 106.0 | 106.3 | 101.7 | 76.4 | 92.1 | 91.3 | 90.3 |
| GDP, total (at purchasers' prices) | 104.2 | 104.6 | 102.3 | 86.6 | 95.4 | 96.4 | 95.0 | |
The gross value added of services decreased by 5.7% in total. The highest falls were in accommodation and food service activities (–51.1%) as well as transportation and storage (–20.0%). The performance of wholesale and retail trade grew by 0.1%. The value added of professional, scientific, technical and administrative activities and arts, entertainment and other services went down by 6.3% and 8.7%, respectively. The performance of financial and insurance activities increased by 3.3%. The value added of public administration and health and social work activities became 0.1% and 7.9% lower, respectively. The value added of education grew by 1.9%.
Services contributed by 3.2 percentage points, agriculture by 0.2 percentage point and construction also by 0.2 percentage point to the 3.6% decrease of gross domestic product in the 4th quarter of 2020. Within services, GDP was lowered the most (by 1.1 percentage points) by transportation and storage. Industry improved the economic performance by 0.4 percentage point.
Expenditure approach:
The actual final consumption of households lessened by 4.2% compared to the same period of the previous year. Household final consumption expenditure, representing the largest proportion of the components of the actual final consumption of households, decreased by 3.4%. The (domestic) consumption expenditure of households realised on the territory of Hungary became more substantially, 6.1% lower than a year earlier, because the consumption expenditure of non-residents (e.g. tourists) declined significantly in the 4th quarter, too. Within this, the volume of domestic consumption expenditure fell in all durability groups – i.e. durable (–2.6%), semi-durable (–5.1%) and non-durable goods (–0.6%) and services (–12.0%).
The volume of social transfers in kind from the government became 8.5% lower, while that of the actual final consumption of the government 6.2% higher. The volume of social transfers in kind from non-profit institutions serving households (NPISHs) was 0.2% larger than a year earlier.
As a result of the above trends, actual final consumption became 2.7% lower.
Gross fixed capital formation grew by 1.2% in the 4th quarter compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Both the volume of investments in construction and that of investments in machinery and equipment went up, the latter at a higher rate. Out of the industries with the largest weight in total investments, the volume of investments became larger in real estate activities and public administration and defence and smaller in manufacturing as well as transportation and storage.
Gross capital formation decreased by 8.1% compared to one year earlier.
As a result of the trends of consumption and capital formation, domestic use as a whole became 4.3% lower in the 4th quarter.
Table 2: Volume indices of final use of gross domestic product (GDP)
(corresponding period of previous year = 100.0%)
| Items of use | 2019 | 2020 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| quarter(s) | |||||||
| IV | I–IV | I | II | III | IV | I–IV | |
| Household final consumption expenditure | 104.9 | 104.6 | 104.6 | 92.1 | 97.2 | 96.6 | 97.5 |
| Social transfers in kind from government | 110.1 | 102.3 | 100.6 | 90.3 | 100.6 | 91.5 | 95.5 |
| Social transfers in kind from NPISHs | 105.4 | 102.5 | 109.5 | 102.8 | 100.8 | 100.2 | 103.3 |
| Actual final consumption of households | 105.8 | 104.2 | 104.1 | 92.1 | 97.9 | 95.8 | 97.4 |
| Actual final consumption of government | 106.6 | 104.7 | 100.1 | 103.8 | 97.4 | 106.2 | 102.0 |
| Actual final consumption, total | 105.9 | 104.2 | 103.5 | 93.8 | 97.8 | 97.3 | 98.0 |
| Gross fixed capital formation | 104.0 | 112.2 | 95.9 | 89.1 | 86.3 | 101.2 | 92.7 |
| Changes in inventoriesa) | x | x | x | x | x | x | x |
| Acquisitions less disposals of valuablesa) | x | x | x | x | x | x | x |
| Gross capital formation, total | 109.5 | 110.4 | 108.2 | 96.2 | 91.0 | 91.9 | 95.6 |
| Domestic use, total | 107.1 | 106.0 | 104.6 | 94.5 | 95.6 | 95.7 | 97.3 |
| Exports, of which: | 102.3 | 105.8 | 100.5 | 76.2 | 95.2 | 101.7 | 93.3 |
| Exports of goods | 101.3 | 105.3 | 101.0 | 80.0 | 102.4 | 109.6 | 98.2 |
| Exports of services | 105.9 | 107.5 | 98.4 | 63.1 | 73.2 | 74.2 | 76.5 |
| Imports, of which: | 106.0 | 107.5 | 103.0 | 84.9 | 95.5 | 100.9 | 96.1 |
| Imports of goods | 105.4 | 107.2 | 103.1 | 85.0 | 99.4 | 103.8 | 97.9 |
| Imports of services | 109.3 | 109.0 | 102.1 | 84.5 | 77.6 | 86.9 | 87.2 |
| External balance of goods and servicesa) | x | x | x | x | x | x | x |
| Gross domestic product (GDP), total | 104.2 | 104.6 | 102.3 | 86.6 | 95.4 | 96.4 | 95.0 |
a) For these items the volume index is not applicable.
In the external trade of the economy a surplus was generated at current prices, its value was 337 billion forints. The volume of both exports and imports was up (by 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively). In trade in goods, exports were 9.6% and imports 3.8% larger than a year earlier. Within the external trade of the economy, the exports of services (including tourism) dropped by 25.8% and their imports by 13.1%.
Actual final consumption contributed by 1.8 percentage points and gross capital formation by 2.4 percentage points to the 3.6% fall of gross domestic product in the 4th quarter of 2020. The balance of external trade as a whole increased the economic performance by 0.6 percentage point.
In the 4th quarter of 2020 compared to the previous quarter, according to seasonally and calendar adjusted and reconciled data:
The performance of the economy grew by 1.4%.
From the production approach, gross value added increased by 2.9% in agriculture, by 0.9% in industry and by 12.9% in construction and lessened by 0.1% in services.
From the expenditure approach, household final consumption expenditure rose by 1.3% and the volume of social transfers in kind from the government by 0.1% and the actual final consumption of the government became 3.6% higher out of the components of actual final consumption. Gross fixed capital formation grew by 4.4%. In external trade, exports were up by 3.2% and imports by 3.0%.
In 2020 compared to the previous year:
According to the first estimation the value of GDP was 47,605 billion forints at current prices, its volume decreased by 5.0%. According to calendar adjusted data the performance of the economy lessened by 5.1% compared to the previous year.
From the production approach, value added became 6.7% lower in agriculture, 4.8% smaller in industry, 9.4% lower in construction and 4.8% smaller in services.
Services contributed by 2.7 percentage points, industry by 1.0 percentage point, construction by 0.5 percentage point and agriculture by 0.2 percentage point to the decrease of GDP.
From the expenditure approach, the actual final consumption of households was down by 2.6%, while the actual final consumption of the government increased by 2.0%, and as a total result of these, the volume of actual final consumption became 2.0% lower. Gross capital formation went down by 4.4%, within which gross fixed capital formation by 7.3%. The volume of exports lessened by 6.7% and that of imports by 3.9%.
From the expenditure approach, actual final consumption contributed by 1.3 percentage points, gross capital formation by 1.2 percentage points and the balance of external trade as a whole by 2.4 percentage points to the decline of the economy.